The US landscaping market closed 2025 at an estimated $186 billion in service revenue and is on track to clear $196 billion in 2026, according to industry tallies from IBISWorld, Lawn & Landscape magazine’s annual Top 100 issue, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Services Annual Survey. Forecasters peg the compound annual growth rate at roughly 5.46% through 2031, putting the sector on a path to $255 billion within five years. The drivers are not mysterious. Five forces are doing most of the work, and operators who understand them are pricing services and hiring crews accordingly.
The short version
- US landscaping services hit $186B in 2025, on pace for $196B in 2026 and $255B by 2031 at a 5.46% CAGR
- Maintenance contracts (mow, edge, fertilize) still drive 55% to 60% of industry revenue
- Commercial property turnover and new construction added an estimated $11B to demand in 2024 and 2025
- Private equity owns 6 of the top 10 firms by revenue, up from 2 a decade ago
- Labor cost inflation ran 7.2% in 2025 versus 4.1% economy-wide, per BLS
- Water-restriction states (CA, NV, AZ, CO, UT) are reshaping mix toward design-build and turf removal
What the numbers say
The headline figure of $186 billion combines residential lawn care, commercial grounds maintenance, design and installation, tree care, irrigation, and snow services across roughly 632,000 establishments tracked by the Census Bureau under NAICS 561730. That count is up from 604,000 in 2020. The industry now employs about 1.27 million people on payroll, with another 480,000 to 600,000 working as sole proprietors or seasonal labor depending on which agency you ask.
Lawn & Landscape’s 2026 Top 100 list, published in March, showed the top 100 firms collectively booked $14.8 billion in revenue, up 6.9% year over year. That is still less than 8% of total industry revenue, which tells you the rest of the market remains heavily fragmented. The median firm in NAICS 561730 books under $400,000 a year and runs with fewer than five trucks.
Force one: maintenance is still the engine
Recurring maintenance contracts (weekly mowing, fertilization rounds, seasonal cleanup, mulch installs) generate 55% to 60% of total industry revenue depending on whose breakdown you use. That share has stayed stable for fifteen years. Maintenance is sticky, it produces predictable cash flow, and it gives operators a captive audience to upsell aeration, irrigation repair, and landscape enhancement work. Every roll-up buyer in the market wants maintenance-heavy books for exactly this reason. See our 2026 lawn treatment guide for what those programs typically include.
Force two: commercial construction recovered
Commercial real estate turnover slumped in 2022 and 2023, then bounced back. The Architectural Billings Index turned positive in late 2024 and stayed there through Q1 2026, signaling design work coming through the pipeline. Federal infrastructure spending under the IIJA and CHIPS Act added warehouse, manufacturing, and data center projects that all carry landscape budgets. JLL and CBRE estimated commercial property turnover and new construction added about $11 billion to landscape services demand in 2024 and 2025 combined.
Force three: private equity consolidation
Roll-up activity has reshaped the top end of the market. Six of the top 10 firms by revenue are now PE-owned: BrightView (taken private by KKR via One Rock Capital in late 2024), Yellowstone Landscape (CIVC Partners), SavATree (Apax Partners), Monarch Landscape (Audax), Heartland (Carlyle Group), and BrightView’s predecessor verticals. TruGreen, owned by Clayton Dubilier & Rice and Bain Capital, sits separately in lawn-care services but is included by some trackers. For deeper coverage of who is buying and at what multiples, see our breakdown of lawn and landscape private equity in 2026 and the BrightView acquisitions tracker.
Force four: labor cost inflation
BLS Employment Cost Index data for landscape services showed wages and benefits up 7.2% in 2025, well ahead of the 4.1% economy-wide print. The H-2A and H-2B visa programs, which together supply more than 75,000 seasonal landscape workers per year, are running at full quota. DOL Adverse Effect Wage Rates for H-2A in 2026 range from $14.99 in Mississippi to $20.27 in California. Operators who depended on cash labor in the 2010s now compete with regulated wage floors plus 2x to 2.5x markup for housing, transport, and visa compliance. See our coverage of H-2A program economics for landscape crews.
Force five: water restrictions reshape Western demand
California SB 1157 banned non-functional turf at commercial, industrial, and institutional sites starting January 2027 with phased compliance through 2031. Nevada banned non-functional turf in Southern Nevada in 2022 and is expanding statewide review. Arizona, Utah, and Colorado all run turf-replacement rebates through state and water-district programs. The net effect is a mix shift away from mow-blow maintenance toward design-build conversion work, native plant installs, and smart irrigation retrofits. For policy details see our coverage of SB 1157 and Nevada turf replacement.
By the numbers
| Metric | 2020 | 2025 | 2026 (forecast) | 2031 (forecast) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry revenue ($B) | $112 | $186 | $196 | $255 |
| Establishments | 604,000 | 632,000 | 638,000 | 660,000 |
| Payroll employment (M) | 1.08 | 1.27 | 1.30 | 1.42 |
| Top 100 share of revenue | 5.4% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.5% |
| PE-owned in top 10 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| Labor cost YoY change | 3.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.0% |
Sources: IBISWorld, Lawn & Landscape Top 100, BLS Employment Cost Index, US Census Bureau NAICS 561730, company filings.
What this means for operators
For a $5 million regional landscape firm, the takeaway is straightforward. Maintenance contracts remain the floor under the business and the most valuable book to own at exit. Commercial work is back but margins are thinner. Labor cost discipline (route density, tech-enabled scheduling, retention bonuses) matters more than top-line growth. And in Western states, the firms that figured out smart irrigation, native design, and turf conversion are pricing 25% to 40% above firms still selling pure maintenance. See our turf maintenance pro guide for operational benchmarks.
Who is winning
The PE-backed top 10 are growing through acquisition more than organic gain. BrightView booked $2.86 billion in fiscal 2025 (per its last public 10-K before going private). TruGreen, the largest residential lawn-care company, books roughly $1.9 billion. Davey Tree Expert Company, employee-owned since 1979, crossed $1.7 billion. Of the non-PE firms in the top 25, several are employee-owned via ESOP, including Davey, Ruppert Landscape, and Bartlett Tree Experts.
FAQ
Is the $186B figure residential plus commercial combined?
Yes. It includes residential lawn care, commercial grounds, design and installation, tree care, irrigation install and maintenance, and snow services. Some trackers split snow out, which lowers the headline to about $170B for green-only services.
Why is the forecast CAGR only 5.46% when 2024 and 2025 grew faster?
Forecasters expect labor cost inflation to ease and demand growth to normalize. The 2024 and 2025 prints were boosted by post-COVID commercial property catch-up and IIJA-funded construction, both of which moderate by 2027.
What share of the market is residential versus commercial?
Roughly 55% residential and 45% commercial by revenue, per IBISWorld. The split varies by region. Southeast markets skew commercial heavy because of HOA contracts and corporate campuses. Northeast skews more residential.
Where does snow removal fit?
Snow services run roughly $14 billion to $18 billion annually depending on the winter. Many landscape firms count it inside their maintenance line. ASCA and SIMA track it separately.
How fragmented is the market really?
The top 100 firms hold about 7.6% of industry revenue. The bottom 580,000 firms hold the rest. By comparison, the top 100 in HVAC hold about 12%, and the top 100 in plumbing hold about 10%. Landscaping is one of the most fragmented service industries in the US.
Regional split
Growth is not evenly distributed. The Southeast (Florida, Georgia, the Carolinas, Texas) is the single fastest-growing region by absolute revenue, picking up about 31% of net industry growth between 2020 and 2025 per Census County Business Patterns data. Population migration, year-round growing seasons, and HOA-heavy housing stock all contribute. The Mountain West (Colorado, Utah, Arizona) is the fastest-growing on a percentage basis, but from a smaller base. The Northeast is flat to slightly down on landscape services revenue, with weather, labor cost, and slower commercial construction the primary headwinds. California stands apart, growing modestly in dollars but reshaping mix dramatically toward design-build and conversion work.
Bottom line
$186 billion in 2025, $255 billion by 2031 if the forecasters are right. The growth is real but uneven. Operators who own maintenance books, control labor cost, and adapt their mix to local water and regulatory reality will capture most of it. Everyone else is fighting for scraps in a market that, despite all the consolidation noise, remains the most fragmented service trade in the country.