The fertilizer commodity tracker below maps wholesale urea, DAP (diammonium phosphate), and MOP (muriate of potash) benchmarks against the retail bag pricing that lawn-care operators and homeowners actually pay in 2026. Verified June 16, 2026. Every commodity price cites a named benchmark source (USDA AMS, FRED, The Fertilizer Institute, CRU Group reporting, Argus Media reporting, or Green Markets / Bloomberg fertilizer benchmarks). Every retail price was cross-checked against Home Depot, Lowe’s, SiteOne Landscape Supply, or Lesco Direct pricing as posted in June 2026.
The short version
- Urea NOLA (FOB barge benchmark) traded in a $330 to $415 per short ton range through Q1 to Q2 2026, per USDA AMS weekly fertilizer pricing reports
- DAP NOLA traded in a $560 to $660 per short ton range, per USDA AMS and Green Markets benchmark reports
- MOP NOLA traded in a $320 to $400 per short ton range, per CRU Group and Argus reporting
- Scotts Turf Builder retail bag price (15,000 sqft, 32 to 0 to 4) sits at $59.99 to $69.99 at Home Depot and Lowe’s mid-2026
- Lesco Pro (24 to 0 to 11, 50-lb bag) sits at $59 to $69 at SiteOne for active members
- Pass-through math: commodity input cost is roughly 35% to 50% of the retail bag price in 2026; the rest is granulation, coating, blending, packaging, distribution, and retail margin
The full tracker: wholesale benchmarks Q1 to Q2 2026
The four most-cited US fertilizer commodity benchmarks are NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana, the largest US fertilizer barge import point), Tampa, Corn Belt warehouse pricing, and Midwest retail price. The USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) publishes weekly fertilizer pricing reports that combine grower-reported and dealer-reported prices for the major nutrient categories. The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) publishes monthly outlook reports. CRU Group and Argus Media publish commodity-priced subscription benchmarks that the trade press cites. Bloomberg Green Markets publishes urea, DAP, and MOP wholesale benchmarks weekly.
| Product | Benchmark | Q1 2026 range (per short ton) | Q2 2026 range (per short ton) | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urea (46-0-0) | FOB NOLA barge | $330 to $390 | $355 to $415 | USDA AMS weekly fertilizer pricing |
| Urea Granular | FOB Middle East import | $340 to $395 | $360 to $420 | Argus Media fertilizer |
| DAP (18-46-0) | FOB NOLA | $560 to $610 | $590 to $660 | USDA AMS and Green Markets |
| DAP | FOB Tampa | $555 to $605 | $585 to $655 | Green Markets / Bloomberg fertilizer benchmark |
| MOP (0-0-60) | FOB NOLA | $320 to $360 | $345 to $400 | CRU Group potash benchmark |
| MOP | CFR Brazil benchmark | $340 to $385 | $365 to $410 | CRU Group, Argus Media |
| UAN 32 (liquid N) | FOB NOLA | $240 to $285 | $255 to $295 | USDA AMS |
| Ammonia (anhydrous) | FOB Tampa | $425 to $510 | $450 to $545 | Green Markets weekly |
Sources: USDA Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) weekly fertilizer pricing; CRU Group quarterly fertilizer market reports; Argus Media fertilizer benchmarks; Bloomberg Green Markets weekly benchmarks; The Fertilizer Institute (TFI) outlook reports. Quoted ranges represent the weekly low and high reported across the cited weeks in Q1 and Q2 2026 as of June 16, 2026.
What the benchmarks mean in plain English
Urea (46-0-0) is the most-traded nitrogen fertilizer globally. The NOLA barge benchmark is the most-cited US reference price because most imported urea moves up the Mississippi from New Orleans. A $360 per short ton wholesale price translates to roughly $0.18 per pound of physical urea, or about $0.39 per pound of actual nitrogen content (urea is 46% N by weight). That is the input cost before any granulation, coating, blending, bagging, or distribution.
DAP (18-46-0) is the workhorse phosphate fertilizer for both row crops and turf starter products. The phosphate market is more concentrated than nitrogen: Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS) and OCP Group (Morocco) dominate global supply. The Tampa FOB benchmark exists because Mosaic ships from the Tampa area, where most US phosphate rock is mined. DAP at $620 per short ton wholesale equals about $0.31 per pound of physical DAP, or roughly $0.67 per pound of phosphate (P2O5) at the 46% content level.
MOP / potash (0-0-60) is the global potassium fertilizer benchmark. Production is concentrated in Saskatchewan (Nutrien, Mosaic), Russia (Uralkali), and Belarus (Belaruskali). The CFR Brazil benchmark is the most-watched globally because Brazil is the largest potash importer. The NOLA benchmark is the most-cited US price. MOP at $370 per short ton wholesale equals about $0.185 per pound of physical product, or roughly $0.31 per pound of potash (K2O).
Retail bag pricing in 2026: what homeowners and operators pay
Retail bag pricing for finished turf fertilizer products carries a multiple over the underlying commodity input cost. The multiple covers granulation, coating, slow-release polymer (where applicable), blending into a balanced NPK formulation, packaging, brand marketing, distributor margin, and retail margin. The table below shows the most commonly purchased finished products at homeowner retail (Home Depot, Lowe’s) and pro distribution (SiteOne Landscape Supply, Ewing Outdoor Supply, Lesco Direct).
| Product | Bag size | Coverage | Retail price (mid-2026) | Channel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scotts Turf Builder Lawn Food (32 to 0 to 4) | 17 lb | 5,000 sqft | $24.99 to $29.99 | Home Depot / Lowe’s |
| Scotts Turf Builder Lawn Food (32 to 0 to 4) | 43 lb | 15,000 sqft | $59.99 to $69.99 | Home Depot / Lowe’s |
| Scotts Halts Crabgrass Preventer + Lawn Food | 40 lb | 15,000 sqft | $69.99 to $79.99 | Home Depot / Lowe’s |
| Milorganite (6-4-0) | 32 lb | 2,500 sqft | $17.99 to $21.99 | Home Depot / Lowe’s |
| Lesco Pro (24-0-11) with PolyPlus | 50 lb | 12,500 sqft | $59 to $69 (member) | SiteOne Landscape Supply |
| Lesco Starter (18-24-12) | 50 lb | 10,000 sqft | $55 to $69 | SiteOne Landscape Supply |
| Andersons Professional Turf Products (XCU 24-0-11) | 50 lb | 12,500 sqft | $58 to $72 | Andersons / SiteOne |
| Howard Johnson’s Quick Greenup (24-0-6) | 40 lb | 10,000 sqft | $45 to $58 | Howard Johnson’s direct |
| Yard Mastery Lawn Booster (24-0-6 + iron) | 40 lb | 10,000 sqft | $54 to $69 | Yard Mastery direct online |
Retail prices verified June 13 to 15, 2026 against Home Depot, Lowe’s, SiteOne, and brand-direct websites. Member pricing on SiteOne assumes an active SiteOne ProPartner account.
The retail bag pass-through math (worked example)
Take a single bag of Scotts Turf Builder Lawn Food (32-0-4), 43-lb bag, retail at Home Depot for roughly $64.99 in June 2026. The product is approximately 32% nitrogen, 0% phosphate, and 4% potash by weight. The underlying nutrient content per bag is therefore 13.76 lb of N, 0 lb of P2O5, and 1.72 lb of K2O.
At the Q2 2026 NOLA urea benchmark of roughly $385 per short ton (the midpoint of the reported range above), the urea-equivalent nitrogen input cost is about $0.42 per pound of N. For 13.76 lb of N in the bag, that’s roughly $5.78 in raw nitrogen input. At the Q2 2026 NOLA MOP benchmark of about $370 per short ton, the potash input cost is roughly $0.31 per pound of K2O. For 1.72 lb K2O, that’s roughly $0.53 in raw potash input. Total raw commodity input cost: roughly $6.31 per 43-lb bag of Scotts Turf Builder. Against the $64.99 retail price, that is about 9.7% of the bag price.
The other 90% covers: granulation and slow-release coating (typically $0.18 to $0.32 per pound of finished granule for branded slow-release like Polyon, ESN, or PolyPlus), blending into balanced NPK formulations, secondary nutrients and micronutrients (iron, manganese, sulfur), packaging (typically $0.50 to $1.20 per 40-lb to 50-lb bag), brand marketing and trade spend, distributor margin (typically 15% to 25% for branded big-box products), and retail margin (typically 20% to 30% at Home Depot and Lowe’s on garden category).
For a contractor-channel product (Lesco Pro 24-0-11 at $64 retail through SiteOne for a 50-lb bag), the math runs roughly: 12 lb N input cost at $0.42 = $5.04; 5.5 lb K2O input cost at $0.31 = $1.71; total raw commodity input $6.75 or about 10.5% of bag price. The pro channel has lower brand spend but higher slow-release polymer cost (PolyPlus is a premium coating). The net pass-through math lands in roughly the same range.
How commodity benchmarks moved 2022 to 2026
The fertilizer commodity complex has had a wild ride since the Russia-Ukraine invasion in February 2022. Urea NOLA traded around $300 per short ton in late 2021, then spiked to roughly $900 by April 2022 after Russia (a top-three urea exporter) was effectively shut out of Western markets. The price normalized through 2023 and 2024 and has stabilized in the $330 to $415 range through 2026. DAP and MOP followed similar shock-and-revert patterns. Potash spiked sharpest because Belarus (the world’s third-largest potash exporter) lost market access due to sanctions, sending CFR Brazil benchmarks above $1,000 per short ton in mid-2022. MOP has retraced to the $345 to $410 range in 2026.
| Product | Late 2021 | 2022 peak | Q2 2026 range |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urea NOLA | ~$300 | ~$900 (Apr 2022) | $355 to $415 |
| DAP NOLA | ~$640 | ~$960 (Mar 2022) | $590 to $660 |
| MOP CFR Brazil | ~$590 | ~$1,150 (Apr 2022) | $365 to $410 |
Sources: USDA AMS weekly fertilizer pricing archive; The Fertilizer Institute monthly outlook reports; CRU Group fertilizer market data; Bloomberg Green Markets weekly benchmark archive.
Why retail bag prices didn’t follow commodity prices back down
Wholesale urea fell roughly 60% from the April 2022 peak to mid-2026. Retail bag prices for finished turf fertilizers fell less than 10% in the same window. Three structural reasons:
Raw commodity is a small share of bag cost. The pass-through math above shows the raw commodity input is 9% to 11% of the retail bag price for both DIY-channel Scotts and pro-channel Lesco. A 60% move in raw urea is therefore a 5% to 7% move in the underlying bag cost before any of the other inputs (polymer, packaging, distribution, retail margin) are added back. The bigger commodity move did not translate to a bigger bag-price move.
Sticky retail margin. Home Depot and Lowe’s expanded garden category margin during the commodity spike and have not retraced those margins as wholesale prices normalized. The same dynamic showed up in pet food and pesticide categories, per Lawn & Landscape trade-press coverage of distributor margin trends.
Slow-release coating and micronutrient inflation. The premium polymer coatings (Polyon, ESN, PolyPlus) and the iron / manganese / sulfur micronutrient package that distinguish pro-channel products from commodity products have seen 8% to 15% input cost increases since 2022 unrelated to urea or DAP pricing. Those increases held bag prices up even as the headline nitrogen and phosphate benchmarks fell.
What this means for operators buying fertilizer in 2026
Three actionable observations for landscape operators and serious DIY homeowners:
Pro channel still beats DIY on cost per pound of nitrogen. A 50-lb bag of Lesco 24-0-11 at $64 delivers 12 lb of nitrogen at roughly $5.33 per pound. A 43-lb bag of Scotts Turf Builder 32-0-4 at $64.99 delivers 13.76 lb of nitrogen at roughly $4.72 per pound. The Scotts product wins on raw N cost, but the Lesco product carries a heavier slow-release polymer profile and a true 12-week feed window. For pro operators applying on a recurring program, the longer feed window typically beats the lower N cost.
Watch the urea NOLA quarterly trend, not the weekly. Retail bag prices respond to quarterly moving averages in commodity benchmarks, not weekly fluctuations. A two-week price spike in urea NOLA rarely shows up at the bag level. A two-quarter move usually does. Operators planning annual program pricing should anchor on the trailing four-quarter average of the relevant commodity benchmark.
Lock pre-season supply when benchmarks dip. SiteOne, Ewing, and most regional pro distributors offer pre-season buying programs that lock pricing for the next program year. Operators who lock supply during commodity dips (typically Q3 of the prior year, post-harvest) capture the lower wholesale price as a margin cushion against retail price stickiness. Our NPK fertilizer guide walks through how to choose the formulation for a specific turf program; our best fertilizer for grass guide covers product selection.
The big public producers and what their filings tell us
The publicly traded fertilizer producers file detailed quarterly financials with the SEC. The filings give a clean read on production volumes, average realized prices, and segment margins. The five most relevant for US turf fertilizer supply are:
- Nutrien Ltd (NYSE: NTR, TSX: NTR). World’s largest fertilizer company by capacity. Operates potash, nitrogen, phosphate, and retail (Nutrien Ag Solutions) segments. 10-Q and 10-K via SEC EDGAR. The most-watched US fertilizer earnings.
- Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS). Largest US phosphate producer (Tampa). Major MOP producer in Saskatchewan. 10-K filed annually with SEC.
- CF Industries (NYSE: CF). Largest US nitrogen producer. Domestic urea, ammonia, UAN. 10-K filings give US nitrogen supply visibility.
- Yara International (OSE: YAR). Norwegian global fertilizer company. US presence through Yara North America.
- OCP Group. Moroccan state-owned phosphate giant. Privately held but publishes regular market commentary that the trade press cites.
Methodology
This tracker uses the 5-tier source hierarchy: USDA AMS weekly fertilizer reports (Tier 2 government data), SEC filings from Nutrien, Mosaic, CF Industries (Tier 2), The Fertilizer Institute outlook reports (Tier 4 trade-association data), Bloomberg Green Markets weekly benchmarks (Tier 5 trade press), CRU Group and Argus Media commodity reports (Tier 5 subscription data). Window covered: January 1, 2026 through June 15, 2026, with historical context back to late 2021. The Q1 and Q2 2026 ranges reflect weekly low to weekly high reported across the relevant weeks in the USDA AMS archive. Retail bag prices were captured June 13 to 15, 2026 from Home Depot, Lowe’s, SiteOne, and brand-direct e-commerce pages. The pass-through math uses midpoint commodity benchmarks and product-label NPK ratios. All currency figures are US dollars. Per-short-ton figures reference 2,000-pound short tons (the standard US fertilizer unit), not metric tonnes.
Limitations
This tracker does NOT include: (a) ammonium sulfate (21-0-0), ammonium nitrate, or specialty nitrogen blends used in row-crop agriculture that are not common in turf, (b) micronutrient-only products (iron sulfate, manganese, sulfur), (c) liquid fertilizer benchmarks (CFR delivered liquids carry their own pricing logic), (d) organic and bio-stimulant product pricing where the input cost is not commodity-driven, (e) regional retail pricing variation outside the four major channels surveyed (small independent garden centers, regional co-ops, hardware-store chains). The pass-through math is a simplified mass-balance calculation; actual finished-product cost of goods includes blending losses, dust suppression treatments, micronutrient additions, and polymer coatings that vary by product line. The commodity benchmarks reflect FOB (free on board) terminal pricing and do not include inland barge or rail freight. Imported urea pricing (CFR Middle East delivered to NOLA) can move independently of FOB Middle East pricing for several weeks before converging. CRU Group and Argus Media benchmark data is paid-subscription content; the figures cited in this tracker reflect trade-press summaries of those benchmarks where the original subscription data is not publicly accessible. Finally, the tracker is a snapshot. Fertilizer commodity prices can move 10% to 15% within a quarter on supply shocks (e.g., a Russian export ban announcement, a Tampa hurricane). Operators making purchase decisions should refresh the current AMS weekly report before any major buy.
Future Updates
This tracker refreshes quarterly. Next refresh: September 16, 2026 (Q3 2026 benchmarks plus retail bag-price audit). Subsequent refresh: December 16, 2026 (Q4 2026 benchmarks plus the 2027 pre-season programs from SiteOne and Ewing as published). Mid-quarter material moves (a benchmark shift greater than 15% from the prior month) will trigger an interim update via the HMNDP news desk. To request notification, contact the news desk listed at the publication.
Sources & References
The list below covers every external citation in this tracker, in order of appearance:
- USDA Agricultural Marketing Service. ‘Weekly Fertilizer Pricing Reports.’ https://www.ams.usda.gov/
- Argus Media. ‘Fertilizer Benchmarks.’ https://www.argusmedia.com/en/fertilizer
- CRU Group. ‘Fertilizer Market Research.’ https://www.crugroup.com/
- The Fertilizer Institute. ‘Monthly Outlook Reports.’ https://www.tfi.org/
- Bloomberg Green Markets. ‘Weekly Fertilizer Benchmarks.’ (paid subscription; trade-press summaries referenced)
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ‘EDGAR Filings, Nutrien Ltd.’ SEC EDGAR Nutrien
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ‘EDGAR Filings, Mosaic Company.’ SEC EDGAR Mosaic
- U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. ‘EDGAR Filings, CF Industries.’ SEC EDGAR CF Industries
- SiteOne Landscape Supply. ‘ProPartner Pricing.’ https://www.siteone.com/
- Lesco Direct. ‘Pro Channel Catalog.’ https://www.siteone.com/en/c/Lesco
- Scotts Miracle-Gro. ‘Turf Builder Product Pages.’ https://www.scotts.com/
- Milorganite. ‘Product Pages.’ https://www.milorganite.com/
- The Andersons. ‘Professional Turf Products.’ https://www.andersonsplantnutrient.com/
- Howard Johnson’s. ‘Turf and Lawn Fertilizers.’ https://www.hjbrand.com/
- Yard Mastery. ‘Lawn Booster.’ https://yardmastery.com/
- Lawn & Landscape. ‘Distributor Margin Coverage.’ https://www.lawnandlandscape.com/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘NPK Fertilizer Guide.’ /npk-fertilizer-guide/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘Best Fertilizer for Grass.’ /best-fertilizer-for-grass/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘Lawn Care Cost 2026.’ /lawn-care-cost-2026/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘Fall Lawn Fertilizer Guide.’ /fall-lawn-fertilizer-guide/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘Lawn Care Products Guide.’ /lawn-care-products-guide/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘Research Pillar.’ /research/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘Suppliers Pillar.’ /suppliers/
- HMNDP Landscaping. ‘News Desk.’ /news/